Executive Summary

Q2 2025 revenue grew 7% year over year to $1.758B; GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.01), and adjusted EBITDA was $176.1M. Sequentially, adjusted EBITDA declined ~5% primarily due to ~$32M planned turnaround headwinds and unplanned operating events in chemicals .
Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue materially beat, EBITDA was roughly in line, and EPS missed given GAAP loss; definitional differences between “Primary EPS” and GAAP diluted EPS should be noted (see Estimates Context) .
Management guided Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA to $170–$210M, citing seasonally stronger CAPV demand, stable low EDC pricing, an epoxy turnaround tailwind, and a Winchester commercial price increase, offset by tariff-related cost uncertainty .
Stock narrative catalysts: tariff outcomes (Brazil/Latin America), EDC price stabilization, Winchester price realization and inventory normalization, and execution of the “Beyond 250” cost program ($50–$70M 2025 savings; $70–$90M year-end run-rate savings targeted) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

CAPV delivered seasonal demand improvement with stable ECU values, preserving value despite trough conditions; revenue rose to $979.5M (+6% y/y) .
Operating cash flow was strong at $212.3M, funding the Manitowoc ammunition asset acquisition ($55.8M net cash), $39M debt reduction, and $10.1M in buybacks; available liquidity ~$1.4B .
Formulated solutions within Epoxy grew sequentially in both volume and margin, and management reiterated structural cost reductions (Stade supplier contract starts Jan 1, 2026; >$40M of $80M epoxy cost target from this contract) .

What Went Wrong

Epoxy posted a larger loss (segment loss $(23.7)M vs $(3.0)M y/y) due to higher operating costs and the Stade turnaround headwind; global demand remains subdued amid subsidized Asian competition and limited anti-dumping protections in EU .
Winchester earnings fell sharply (to $25.0M from $70.3M y/y) on lower commercial shipments/pricing and higher raw material costs (propellant, commodity metals); military strength only partially offset .
EDC price decline was steeper than anticipated; unplanned operating events in chemicals limited results to the lower end of internal expectations, contributing to EBITDA softness versus Q1 .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance vs Prior Periods

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$1,671.3	$1,644.2	$1,758.3
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.09	$0.01	$(0.01)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$193.4	$185.6	$176.1

Narrative: Revenue rose sequentially and y/y on CAPV volume strength and Winchester military project revenue, but EPS turned negative due to higher costs and interest expense; adjusted EBITDA declined sequentially on planned/unplanned operating headwinds .

Segment Breakdown

Segment	Q2 2024 Sales ($MM)	Q1 2025 Sales ($MM)	Q2 2025 Sales ($MM)	Q2 2024 Income Before Taxes ($MM)	Q1 2025 Income Before Taxes ($MM)	Q2 2025 Income Before Taxes ($MM)
CAPV	$920.3	$924.5	$979.5	$99.3	$78.3	$64.9
Epoxy	$317.7	$331.7	$331.2	$(3.0)	$(28.4)	$(23.7)
Winchester	$406.0	$388.0	$447.6	$70.3	$22.8	$25.0
Total Sales	$1,644.0	$1,644.2	$1,758.3

Key drivers: CAPV income contracted on lower pricing (EDC) and higher operating costs despite volume gains; Epoxy losses widened on turnaround costs; Winchester mixed with defense strength offset by commercial pricing/volume and raw material cost headwinds .

KPIs

KPI	Q2 2025
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	$212.3
Net Debt ($USD Billions)	~$2.773
Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA (TTM) (x)	3.9x
Cash and Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)	$223.8
Available Liquidity ($USD Billions)	~$1.4
Share Repurchases (Shares/MM; $USD MM)	~0.5; $10.1

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA	Q3 2025	N/A	$170–$210M	New issuance
Working Capital Cash Source (ex tax timing)	FY 2025	“Source of cash” (unspecified)	≥$100M	Raised/quantified
Net Debt vs YE 2024	FY 2025	Flat by year-end	Flat by year-end	Maintained
Dividend	Quarterly	Maintain $0.20/share	Maintain $0.20/share	Maintained
Winchester Commercial Pricing	Q3 2025	N/A	Price increase planned in Q3 to offset commodity cost inflation	New action
CAPV Market Commentary	Q3 2025	Caustic strengthening; EDC pressure	Caustic/bleach seasonal strength; EDC stabilizing at low levels	Updated narrative

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
Tariffs/Macro	Tariffs inflating metals; direct overall impact to Olin “net neutral”; uncertainty elevated	Uncertainty re Brazil retaliatory tariffs; management expects net neutral for CAPV unless significant retaliation; ~1–2 months trade-flow noise if imposed	Heightened uncertainty; watching Brazil/Latin America
EDC Pricing	Persistent pressure; expected floor; EDC as flywheel to optimize ECU	Declined more than expected; now expected to stabilize at Q2 exit levels	Lower but stabilizing
Caustic/Chlor-Alkali	Seasonal strength; raising prices; CAPV resilient ECU values	Seasonal demand improvement; June $30/ton caustic price increase in progress	Firming in Americas
Epoxy/Anti-dumping	US/EU measures limited; South Korea exempt; epoxy expected to struggle	Ongoing demand weakness; EU anti-dumping outcome “too little, too late”; cost tailwinds from Stade contract in 2026	Structural self-help; external protection limited
Cost Program (“Beyond 250”)	Raised 2025 savings to $50–$70M; capex reduced by ~$25M	Year-end run-rate savings of $70–$90M targeted; Freeport pilot; contractor reduction and operational excellence	Accelerating execution
Winchester	Commercial destocking; metals/propellant costs rising; military strong; acquisition synergies	“Perfect storm” in commercial; Q3 price increase; copper tariff risk inflating costs; Manitowoc adds ~$5M H2 2025 EBITDA; $40M by year 3	Pricing actions; near-term margin pressure

Management Commentary

“Despite weak global demand, Olin remains disciplined and focused on leveraging its leading, integrated chlor alkali position to maximize value as evidenced by our stability in Electrochemical Unit (ECU) values… we experienced several operational challenges that resulted in higher costs, offsetting solid commercial performance.” — Ken Lane, CEO .
“During the second quarter, we generated $212 million in operating cash flow… funded the $56 million Winchester acquisition… reduced debt by $39 million and continued share repurchases totaling $10 million.” — Todd Slater, CFO .
“We expect Olin’s third quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be in a range of $170 million to $210 million… seasonal strength in caustic and bleach; EDC pricing stabilizing; lower turnaround expenses.” — Ken Lane, CEO .
“Overall, we anticipate our efforts will result in 2025 year-end run rate cost savings of $70 million to $90 million… Freeport is piloting this transformation.” — Ken Lane, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

Tariffs and Brazil exposure: Management views tariff impacts as net neutral unless Brazil imposes significant retaliation; trade flows would rewire in ~1–2 months, causing short-term Gulf Coast spot price noise .
EDC sensitivity and utilization: EDC pricing fell more than expected; expected to stabilize at Q2 exit. Utilization down in Q2 due to turnarounds; Q3 utilization should rise, but the focus remains value over volume .
Winchester dynamics: Commercial margins depressed by pricing and raw materials (copper/propellant). Copper tariff threat (up to 50%) has lifted prices; Winchester to push Q3 price increases to offset costs; acquisition synergies to build through H2 2025 and over 3 years .
Cost savings trajectory: Expect $50–$70M realized in 2025; Beyond 250 program aims for $70–$90M year-end run-rate; significant epoxy structural savings start 1/1/2026 (Stade contract) .
CAPV caustic price increase: June $30/ton increase in progress; near-term noise due to tariff uncertainty, but demand and pricing expected to remain stable .

Estimates Context

Metric	Consensus (S&P Global)*	Actual	Result
Revenue ($USD Millions)	1,659.4*	1,758.3	Bold beat
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	177.3*	177.5* (S&P actual) / 176.1 (Olin Adjusted EBITDA)	In line (definitional difference)
Primary EPS ($USD)	0.017*	0.015* (S&P actual) / GAAP diluted EPS $(0.01)	Miss on GAAP EPS; S&P “Primary EPS” near in-line

Notes and implications:

Revenue materially exceeded consensus, reflecting CAPV volume strength and Winchester military projects .
EBITDA is close to consensus; Olin’s reported adjusted EBITDA ($176.1M) differs slightly from S&P’s EBITDA actual ($177.5M) given definitional nuances .
EPS: S&P “Primary EPS” differs from GAAP diluted EPS; GAAP loss reflects higher operating costs and interest expense. Expect sell-side to adjust models for turnaround timing, tariff-related cost inflation in Winchester, and EDC stabilization assumptions .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

CAPV resilience continues: Stable ECU values and seasonal caustic/bleach demand should underpin Q3 EBITDA within the guided $170–$210M range; EDC prices expected to stabilize at low levels .
Watch tariff outcomes in Brazil/Latin America: Significant retaliation would create temporary trade-flow dislocations and spot price “noise” but likely rewires within 1–2 months; base case remains net neutral .
Winchester inflection hinges on price realization and inventory normalization: Q3 price increase is a first step; copper/propellant costs remain headwinds near term; military strength and Manitowoc synergies support H2 .
Cost program execution is a key lever: Management targets $50–$70M 2025 savings and $70–$90M run-rate by year-end; epoxy structural savings in 2026 should improve divisional profitability .
Cash generation intact: $212M operating cash flow in Q2 funded acquisition, debt reduction, buybacks; working capital expected to be a ≥$100M cash source for 2025 (ex tax timing) .
Near-term trading setup: Revenue beat vs consensus and in-line EBITDA, with conservative Q3 guide amid tariff uncertainty; stock likely sensitive to tariff headlines, Winchester pricing follow-through, and any EDC bounce.
Medium-term thesis: Integrated chlor-alkali position, PVC tolling optionality, formulated epoxy growth, and disciplined capital allocation (maintained dividend, opportunistic buybacks) position Olin to deliver improved trough-level earnings and cash flow through cycle .

Sources: Olin Q2 2025 earnings press release and 8-K (Item 2.02) ; Q2 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) ; Prior quarter press releases/transcripts for trend: Q1 2025 ; Q4 2024 .

OLIN Corp (OLN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary